A Multilevel Theoretical and Empirical Framework for Time-Based Consumer Resilience: Cross-Country Structural Modeling of Food Security Responses in Germany, Türkiye, and Kenya

This study aims to address the existing gaps in consumer resilience literature by modelling individual behavior through temporal and multi-level cause-effect relationships. Resilience is defined in three temporal stages: preparedness, response, and recovery. Individual response capacity is explained by the Consumer Resilience Theory. Individual and social capital elements are modelled using the Sustainable Livelihoods Approach, and regional and national contexts are analyzed based on the Ecological Systems Theory. Structural equation modelling (SEM) was applied using data from 3,000 household decision-makers in Germany, Turkey, and Kenya; it was found that individual capital elements such as digital access, financial literacy, and social support have different levels of impact across countries. Using multilevel regression analysis (MLM), these individual effects were linked to contextual variables such as social protection, infrastructure access, and public support. The systematic differences in preparation, intervention, and recovery periods across countries indicate that resilience is time sensitive. The results indicate that digital inclusion and automated social support systems are priority intervention areas for developed countries; infrastructure and financial literacy for developing countries; and mobile financial systems and collective social networks for least developed countries. The importance of building resilience not only at the individual level but also at the institutional and systemic levels is emphasized.