Genomic Evolution of Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor Strains and Climatic Factors in Driving Cholera Surges in Dhaka, Bangladesh, 1996-2024
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Vibrio cholerae O1 El Tor strains responsible for endemic and epidemic cholera exhibit high genomic divergence in Bangladesh, although their relationship with the epidemiology and transmission of the disease has not been elucidated. Our integrated analyses results of the cholera case data of the world’s largest Diarrheal Disease Surveillance System (DDSS) of icddr,b (1996–2024) against the bacterial genomic sequence data reveal that the co-circulation of multiple lineages/sub-lineages of V. cholerae O1 El Tor strains, as well as their flux between the years with newly introduced or re-emerged lineages were significantly (p-value < = 0.05) associated with the number of cholera cases at Dhaka city. Our statistical modelling combining cholera with the climate factors such as temperature, humidity, and rainfall and the V. cholerae genome evolutionary dynamics data elucidates the interannual variation such as, high and low cholera, including the case surges in major epidemics of the disease in Bangladesh.
