Multivariable Geophysical Stressors andTectonic Feedbacks under ChangingBoundary Conditions:Comparative Analysis with Permian Events

This study investigates whether global lithospheric stress is partially modulated by a combination of external geophysical forcings. We integrate solar declination, lunar phase cycles, oceanic mass redistribution, atmospheric pressure anomalies, and polar ice dynamics into a unified multivariable framework to explain variations in shallow crustal stress. Leveraging global datasets from USGS, GVP, ESA-CCI, ERA5, and NASA/JPL (1973–2025), we quantify statistical correlations between these external drivers and seismic–volcanic activity. The results reveal moderate associations (e.g., r ≈ 0.48), and simulations indicate tectonic stress increases of up to Δσ ≈ 0.05 MPa under scenarios of enhanced ocean loading (+5%). We further model magmatic evolution in Iceland as a polar-analog system, projecting increased melt accumulation under conditions of polar ice loss. These simulations are compared to large igneous provinces from the deep past (e.g., Siberian Traps) to contextualize long-term volcanic behavior. Although current activity remains within natural variability, sustained unloading over millennia could amplify tectonic responses. This work proposes a physically grounded, multivariable stress model with potential relevance for early-warning systems and climate–geodynamics research. Finally, we explore how biological decline—particularly polar diatom reduction—may intensify radiative forcing and reinforce feedbacks between surface climate and lithospheric dynamics.