Excess primary healthcare consultations in Norway in 2024 compared to pre-COVID-19-pandemic baseline trends
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Background
The risk of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 (PASC) is estimated at 3–6% per infection in 2024. We hypothesized that widespread SARS-CoV-2 infections could lead to population-level consequences. Our previous study identified substantial increases in Norwegian primary healthcare consultations in 2023—compared to pre-pandemic levels—for conditions associated with acute COVID-19 and PASC. This study extended that analysis to 2024. We then assessed whether observed patterns were compatible with our hypothesis.
Methods
We used data from the Norwegian Syndromic Surveillance System, which captures nationwide primary healthcare consultations for 102 ICPC-2 codes (out of a possible 710) that are relevant for infectious disease surveillance and some post-acute infection syndromes. Bayesian linear regression models were fitted to 2010–2019 trends, adjusting for population changes, to estimate expected values for 2024. Excess consultations were calculated by age and sex. A COVID-19 community spread was proxied by vaccination-adjusted weekly hospitalization rates.
Results
In 2024, there were 17,800,365 consultations, corresponding to an absolute excess of 1,185,231 consultations, or a 7.1% relative excess, compared to the modelled baseline. The 10 code combinations with largest absolute excess in 2024 were respiratory infections (325,726 excess consultations; 20% relative excess), fatigue (205,381; 70%), psychological symptom/complaint other (188,978; 87%), acute stress reaction (182,079; 76%), feeling depressed (126,783; 133%), hyperkinetic disorder (112,763; 116%), abdominal pain/cramps general (84,544; 29%), memory disturbance (39,177; 63%), conjunctivitis (34,643; 59%), and infectious disease other/NOS (33,556; 81%). COVID-19 community spread showed the strongest correlations with conjunctivitis, strep throat, respiratory infections as a group (R**), fatigue, infectious disease other, memory disturbances, and pneumonia. Deviations from pre-pandemic trends varied: respiratory and psychological disorders worsened from 2020 onward and several conditions showed dramatic excess from 2022–2024. Females 15–29, children, adolescents, and young adults had disproportionately large relative excesses for consultations for memory disturbances.
Conclusions
Primary healthcare consultations in 2024 significantly exceeded pre-pandemic expectations, especially for conditions linked to acute COVID-19 and PASC, though the two cannot be differentiated in these data. While other factors undoubtedly also play a role, findings are compatible with ongoing population-level health impacts associated with repeated SARS-CoV-2 infections, particularly among women, children, adolescents, and young adults. These results emerged under a national COVID-19 strategy that does not account for post-acute consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection.
