Excess primary healthcare consultations in Norway in 2024 compared to pre-COVID-19-pandemic baseline trends

Background The risk of post-acute sequelae of COVID-19 is estimated at 3–6% per infection in 2024. Our previous study identified substantial increases in Norwegian primary healthcare consultations in 2023—compared to pre-pandemic levels—for conditions associated with acute and post-acute COVID-19 sequelae. This study extends that analysis to 2024 and includes age- and sex-specific analyses. Methods We used data from the Norwegian Syndromic Surveillance System (NorSySS), which captures primary healthcare consultations coded using 101 ICPC-2 codes. Bayesian linear regression models were fitted to 2010–2019 trends, adjusting for population changes, to estimate expected values for 2024. Excess consultations were calculated and stratified by age and sex. Results In 2024, there were 17,170,953 consultations. This corresponds to an excess of 836,033 consultations (90% PI: 559,609 to 1,109,762), or a 5.1% relative excess (90% PI: 3.4–6.9%) compared to expected levels. The 10 code combinations with largest absolute excess in 2024 were respiratory infections (261,168 excess consultations, 16% relative excess), fatigue (185,774 excess consultations, 63% relative excess), psychological symptom/complaint other (170,943 excess consultations, 79% relative excess), acute stress reaction (162,642 excess consultations, 68% relative excess), depression (119,120 excess consultations, 125% relative excess), hyperkinetic disorder (102,250 excess consultations, 106% relative excess), abdominal pain/cramps general (74,623 excess consultations, 26% relative excess), memory disturbance (36,521 excess consultations, 59% relative excess), conjunctivitis (31,744 excess consultations, 54% relative excess), and infectious disease other/NOS (30,379 excess consultations, 73% relative excess). Deviations from expected pre-pandemic trends worsened dramatically from 2022, coinciding with the Norwegian government’s lifting of all COVID-19 preventative measures. Increases typically occurred 3–6 months after COVID-19 waves. Women, children, adolescents, and young adults were disproportionately affected by cognitive issues. Conclusions Primary healthcare consultations in 2024 significantly exceeded pre-pandemic expectations, especially for conditions linked to post-acute sequelae of COVID-19. The findings suggest ongoing population-level health impacts associated with repeated SARS-CoV-2 infections, particularly among women, children, adolescents, and young adults. These effects have emerged under a national COVID-19 strategy that does not account for post-acute consequences of SARS-CoV-2 infection.