Unveiling the Performance Drivers of Northern Australian Beef Systems: A Time Series Analysis 1990-2022)

Improving the productivity and sustainability of beef cattle systems in dry tropical regions requires better understanding of long-run drivers of performance and system adjustment dynamics. This study uses Panel Vector Error Correction Models (PVECM) and 32 years of regional data (1990–2022) to investigate the socio-economic and environmental determinants of beef cattle production and productivity in northern Australia. We hypothesised that reproductive efficiency, labour input, and financial structure are significant long-run drivers of system performance, and that tropical beef systems respond dynamically to shocks over time. The PVECM for beef cattle production revealed positive long-run relationships with branding rate, total labour used, and farm capital, and negative relationships with area operated, non-farm income, liquid assets, and rainfall. The productivity model identified positive effects from non-farm income, livestock contract costs, liquid assets, and rainfall, and a negative effect from business debt. The error correction term for the production model was significant, with strong adjustment observed for total labour used and liquid assets, indicating these variables help rebalance the system after shocks. In the productivity model, the error correction term was also significant, with adjustments evident in branding rate and rainfall, suggesting these variables respond dynamically to deviations in long-run productivity. In conclusion, these findings demonstrate that cattle production systems in tropical environments exhibit both structural persistence and short-run responsiveness. Reproductive efficiency emerged as a central and persistent driver of both production and productivity. The results provide an empirical basis for targeted management interventions to improve resilience, investment efficiency, and long-term profitability.