Depressive Symptoms Predict Divergent Trajectories of Well-being in U. S. Adults

The extent to which adults sustain psychological well-being across decades—and the role of depression in shaping these trajectories—remains poorly understood. Using data from the 25-year Americans' Changing Lives cohort (N=3,617), we applied growth mixture modeling to identify longitudinal well-being trajectories and assess whether baseline depressive symptoms predict stability versus change. Four distinct patterns emerged: persistent well-being (60% of the sample), declining well-being, gradually increasing well-being, and sharply increasing well-being. While persistent well-being was the mentally healthiest trajectory, many of this group's members still exhibited substantial intra-individual variability in well-being, and some maintained persistently low well-being. Elevated baseline depressive symptoms predicted greater odds of non-stable trajectories, including both decline and marked improvement, independent of baseline well-being level. These findings underscore the dynamic interplay between depressive symptoms and long-term mental health. Results support interventions that go beyond symptom reduction to cultivate the maintenance of psychological well-being across time.