Modified Carbon Balance Estimation from the Perspective of Multi- Dimensional Urbanization across 366 Cities in China

Low-carbon sustainable development has become essential for China to achieve its carbon neutrality goals. However, most existing carbon balance (CB) studies ignore the corresponding carbon quotas accounting for development needs during urbanization, leading to an assessment of urban low-carbon development that lacks scientific rigour and fairness. This study integrates the three dimensions of economic urbanisation, population urbanisation, and spatial urbanisation to construct a multi-dimensional urban modified carbon balance (MCB) assessment framework, it systematically calculated the CB and MCB of 366 cities in China. Analysis shows that from 2000 to 2020, a widening disparity between anthropogenic carbon emissions and ecological sequestration capacity. The number of cities achieving CB shrinks from 146 to 64. If compensatory regulation of urban carbon emissions is implemented through a carbon quota allocation mechanism, the number of cities meeting MCB standard will increase significantly from 207 to 231.