Global, regional, and national burden of particulate matter pollution (1990–2021) and projections to 2042: A comprehensive analysis for the Global Burden of Disease database

Background Particulate matter pollution (PMP) is one of the leading risk factors of human health worldwide, contributing significantly increase in the prevalence and development of various diseases. Existing studies have some limitations, including the paucity of data and the absence of a focus. A comprehensive analysis is necessary to address this issue. Methods This paper utilizes data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 study to provide a comprehensive description of the burdens attributed to PMP from 1990 to 2021. Additionally, it forecasts the PMP burden to the year 2042. The study employed an array of analytical techniques to examine the temporal, spatial, and demographic patterns. The aforementioned techniques include joinpoint regression analysis, hierarchical cluster analysis, Spearman correlation analysis, frontier analysis, health inequality analysis, decomposition analysis, and forecast analysis. Results From 1990 to 2021, a decline of 63.40% and 62.48%, respectively, in global age-standardized mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates was observed. In 2042, the global age-standardized mortality and DALYs rate will decline to 38.40 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 23.62 to 53.17) and 1033.05 (95% CI: 673.13 to 1392.97) per 100,000 population, respectively. The age-standardized mortality and DALYs rates exhibited a significant negative correlation with socio-demographic index (SDI), with a p-value of less than 0.001, respectively. Health inequality analysis demonstrated that both absolute inequality and relative inequality decreased from 1990 to 2021. The decomposition of trends and drivers behind changes in the PMP-attributable burden demonstrated that declines in exposures were counteracted by population growth in most regions of the world, especially sub-Saharan Africa. Conclusions The study showed that regions with a low SDI have a notably high prevalence of health challenges. It emphasizes systemic barriers to PMP mitigation in low-SDI areas and advocates for targeted interventions, such as clean energy subsidies in Africa, as well as regional policy coordination and integration with Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), in order to achieve health equity.