Geographic Disparities and Subject-Level Divides: A Spatio-Temporal Analysis of Educational Outcomes in Somaliland

This study provides a comprehensive spatio-temporal analysis of educational outcomes in Somaliland, examining geographic and subject-level disparities in student performance. The primary objective was to identify and quantify patterns of inequality in national examination results to inform evidence-based educational policy. The study employed a quantitative approach, analyzing an anonymized, individual-level dataset of Somaliland National Certificate Examination results from 2020 to 2023. The methodology involved descriptive geospatial analysis to visualize performance trends and an inferential logistic regression model to test the significance of regional and subject-level divides, including a crucial interaction term between the two. The findings reveal significant heterogeneity in academic performance across Somaliland’s administrative regions, with eastern regions consistently outperforming western regions. A clear hierarchy of subject difficulty was identified, with STEM subjects (Chemistry, Physics, Math) showing significantly lower pass rates than language and religious studies. Most critically, the analysis uncovered significant interaction effects, indicating that the magnitude of subject difficulty varies substantially by region. This suggests that national-level educational challenges are geographically concentrated and that uniform policy interventions are likely to be ineffective. The study’s originality lies in its granular, spatio-temporal examination of subject-specific educational disparities in a post-conflict, data-scarce context, providing a robust evidence base for targeted policy interventions aimed at fostering educational equity.