Simplifying mosquito sampling to estimate community biting exposure and malaria indoor vector control impact

  1. Nilani Chandradeva
  2. Elizabeth Pretorius
  3. Eunice Teixeira da Silva
  4. Harry Hutchins
  5. Fatucha Barri
  6. Isaac Stopard
  7. Hugo Soubrier
  8. Cesario Martins
  9. Amabélia Rodrigues
  10. Jose Ernesto Nante
  11. Paulo Djata
  12. Joseph Challenger
  13. Thomas Churcher
  14. Ellie Sherrard-Smith
  15. Anna Last
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Abstract

Insecticide-treated nets (ITNs) are most effective against malaria if mosquitoes attempt to bite people when they are in bed. Collecting the biting behaviour data required to quantify a key metric - the proportion of bites taken when people are in bed - is challenging. We tested the reliability of a simplified mosquito sampling method against data from a published systematic review. Using the methodology in the remote, malaria-endemic Bijagos archipelago, Guinea-Bissau, we estimate this proportion is 0.95 (95% Credible intervals, CrI: 0.84, 1.00). Transmission modelling suggests that pyrethroid-only ITNs in a Bijagos-like setting could avert 86% of Plasmodium falciparum clinical cases in under 5-year-olds (95% CrI: 77, 89%), compared to without ITNs. Due to agricultural work, some islanders sleep without ITNs in temporary outdoor shelters, potentially reducing the predicted population-level impact of ITNs by 35%. Our methodology increases the feasibility of monitoring the impact of indoor malaria control interventions in resource-limited settings.

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  1. Version published to 10.21203/rs.3.rs-7065171/v1 on Research Square