Research on the dynamic evolution and influencing factors of semi urbanization rate under the development model of "small county, big city" - based on data analysis of 38 county-level administrative units in Chongqing, China
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Based on panel data from 38 county-level administrative units in Chongqing from 2013 to 2023, this study systematically examined the dynamic evolution characteristics and influencing factors of semi urbanization rate under the "small county, big city" development model. Through research methods such as Moran's index, spatial Markov chain, center of gravity shift, and geographic detector, it was found that the semi urbanization rate in Chongqing showed a fluctuating trend as a whole, with "first decreasing and then increasing" in various regions year by year. The development speed was fast but the gap was large, and some areas had negative values and population loss problems; At the same time, there is a high probability of an upward increase in the semi urbanization rate, but it is difficult to cross levels and is highly susceptible to the influence of neighboring cities; And the overall center of gravity moves evenly within the main urban area; In terms of influencing factors, the interaction between single and double factors such as social economy, basic public education, social culture, and ecological environment will increase the semi urbanization rate. Based on the above conclusions, this study provides micro evidence for the dynamic changes of semi urbanization rate, and provides important insights into the development strategies of mountainous counties in Chongqing, alleviating the problem of urban-rural development imbalance. Finally, it proposes to deepen the reform of the registered residence system and land system, and continue to break the urban-rural dual structure; Clarify the spatial structure of urban areas and narrow the development gap between urban and rural areas based on "county" units; Suggestions for promoting the coordinated development of county-level economy and social public services.
