Re-evaluating the Effects of Agricultural Production Intensification on Carbon Emissions :The Role of Technological Innovation

China’s agricultural transition toward low-carbon, high-quality development necessitates reducing greenhouse gas emissions. This study examines how agricultural production intensification (API) affects carbon emissions, incorporating technological innovation as a mediator. Using 2014–2023 panel data, fixed-effects, mediation, and threshold models reveal: (1) API significantly reduces emissions, validated by robustness tests. (2) Heterogeneity tests show a U-shaped relationship in major grain-producing regions but no significant effect elsewhere. (3) Technological innovation partially mediates API’s emission-reducing effect. (4) Threshold tests indicate nonlinear impacts: API suppresses emissions above a threshold of 0.60, but this weakens beyond 0.95.