Assessing Production Risks and Value Chain Sustainability in Nepal's Lentil (Lens culinarisMedik.) Sector: An Evidence-based Econometric Analysis

Commodity value chain sustainability is critical for agricultural growth, especially for lentil ( Lens culinaris ), an important commercial legume in Nepal grown under risky conditions. This study assesses production risks and value chain sustainability using econometric modelling. Data were collected through surveys of 473 farmers, 155 traders, 85 business enablers, 12 key informant interviews, and 4 focus group discussions. Employing a triple bottom-line framework, value chain mapping, exploratory factor analysis, scaling, indexing, and Seemingly Unrelated Regression, the study reveals a buyer-driven, multi-actor, informal, inclusive, multi-channel, yet profitable lentil value chain with limited product and information flows and weak actor linkages. Seven distinct marketing channels were identified. Sustainability assessment rated economic and environmental dimensions as “good,” while the social dimension was “moderate.” The value chain excels in profitability, employment, scalability, household food security, nutrition, and soil fertility but faces constraints in coordination, value share, farmers’ bargaining power, market information, storage, pricing, and value addition. Yield and profit risks were most significant due to high output variability, while cost risks remained low. Farmers perceived climatic hazards (mean score 4.11) and disease incidence (3.86) as major risks. Key risk-management strategies included crop diversification (4.09), seed saving (4.02), and cooperative involvement (3.60). Factor analysis identified seven strategic risk groups. Seemingly Unrelated Regression revealed that strategy adoption is significantly influenced by risk types, gender, income, land size, group membership, credit access, and service proximity. Risk aversion was low in 7.3% of farmers, medium in 72.3%, and high in 11.2%. From sustainability perspective, cost reduction, early warning systems with rapid response teams, use of improved seeds, crop diversification, collective actions, and stronger value chain coordination are recommended.