Dynamic Resilience Assessment of Communities Surrounding Chemical Parks: A CREAM-Based Approach with Fuzzy-Grey- Bayesian Integration

In order to explore the quantitative theory and methodology of the overall level of disaster prevention and resilience of the communities around chemical parks, we have carried out a study on the meaning and quantitative theoretical model of community resilience around chemical parks. Based on the special characteristics of chemical park risks and the limitations of the traditional safety management model in dynamic risk response, the concept of "community resilience" around chemical industrial parks is proposed, which covers the four-dimensional capabilities of community resistance, adaptation, recovery and learning. By constructing an assessment system with 6 primary indicators and 27 secondary indicators, including community participation and emergency response capability, combining fuzzy theory, Grey-DEMATEL and Bayesian network method, and optimizing the CREAM model, the problem of subjective scoring bias and multifactorial dynamic correlation was effectively solved. Taking the toxic substance leakage in a petrochemical economic development zone as a typical case, the effectiveness and practicability of the constructed assessment system and method are verified, which provide a quantitative basis for the improvement of emergency evacuation, risk prevention and control of the community, and provide a closed-loop solution of "assessment-warning-optimization" for the resilience governance of the community around the chemical industry park, which is of great practical value for the improvement of the governance system of the community in high-risk areas of the city.