Technological Leadership and China's Novel Economic Growth Paradigm
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This paper assesses the success of China's industrial policies in attaining global technological leadership by looking at its strategic change from manufacturing-led growth to technology-driven development. By means of a mixed-methods approach combining quantitative analysis with qualitative policy evaluation, we benchmark China's innovation performance against the United States, so exposing both strengths and structural limits. Policy documents ("Made in China 2025," "14th Five-Year Plan") and industry reports augment our study of R&D expenditure trends, patent quality measures (triadic patents, citation impact), and high-tech export data. Key results show that, despite China's PPP-adjusted R&D spending reaching 87% of U.S. levels by 2022 (2.55% of GDP), with projected dominance in applied technologies like electric vehicles (55% market share by 2034), persistent gaps in basic innovation remain. Though China generates 45% of world patents, semiconductor manufacturing and advanced artificial intelligence algorithms are two key dependencies. Reflecting unresolved issues in IP protection and research commercialisation, the study finds a quality-quantity paradox: China's patent filings exceed Western counterparts but trail significantly in triadic patents (5% vs. Western counterparts) and citation impact (3.2 vs. 5.1). Geopolitical conflicts, especially U.S. export restrictions, have driven China's indigenous innovation in mature technologies forward while revealing weaknesses in emerging fields. Scenario modelling points to bifurcated technological ecosystems whereby China leads deployment while depending on Western core IP. Policy recommendations for China to rebalance towards quality-driven innovation and for Western economies to keep leadership through strategic R&D investments and adaptive tech governance systems round out the study. These revelations redefine knowledge of technological competitiveness in an age of economic nationalism. JEL codes: O33, F63, L52
