Determinants of greenhouse gas emissions in Morocco during the energy transition using an ARDL econometric approach

This study explores the determinants of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in Morocco, a country facing a growing dependence on fossil fuels and a limited share of renewable energy in its energy mix. In the context of a global ecological crisis and economic challenges, Morocco stands out with a local economy highly reliant on fossil fuel imports, which are major sources of pollution and environmental imbalance. This situation calls for an in-depth analysis of the factors driving GHG emissions.To this purpose, the research employs an ARDL (Autoregressive Distributed Lag) model, which makes it possible to assess both short-term and long-term relationships between variables. The results highlight that fossil fuel consumption and economic growth are the primary drivers of rising GHG emissions. In contrast, the share of renewable energy has no statistically significant impact on emissions reduction, indicating its still limited role in the country’s energy transition. Moreover, the analysis reveals a strong inertia in emissions, meaning that they tend to persist along historical patterns.These findings underscore the urgent need to implement more ambitious and coherent energy policies aligned with climate objectives. This includes accelerating the adoption of clean energy sources and establishing effective mitigation mechanisms. The study calls for a structural shift to break the cycle of persistent emissions and guide Morocco toward a more sustainable development path.