Investigation Into the Carbon Dioxide Saving Potentials for an Operating Short- and Medium-haul Aircraft for 2035

In light of the EU Commission's “Fly The Green Deal” and the global goals of the Paris Agreement, the aviation sector is under increasing pressure to reduce its carbon dioxide emissions. As retrofitting existing aircraft with carbon-neutral propulsion systems is not feasible in the short term, alternative strategies for decarbonising operational fleets must be considered. This paper examines the carbon dioxide reduction potential of short- and medium-haul aircraft up to 2035, focusing on the optimization of conventional aircraft configurations. A representative reference aircraft (CSMR-2020), which reflects the technological status of the Airbus A320neo, is developed and validated using UNICADO. Parameter studies are used to analyse the influence of 106 design variables on fuel consumption and mass characteristics, whereby 12 were identified as significant. Based on this, technologies were derived and evaluated which offer the greatest potential for emission reduction. Partial correlation analyses and cross-combination scenarios show that no single technology can achieve the required 30% reduction in emissions; however, the combination of all measures investigated leads to a maximum CO₂ saving of 10.86 tons per flight. These results indicate that technological innovations can make a significant contribution to reducing emissions, but that reaching net-zero goals also requires systemic change, sustained investment in research and development and a supportive political framework. The optimised aircraft configuration derived for the year 2035 will serve as a new CeRAS reference model and provide a benchmark for future aircraft research geared towards sustainability.