Taking the "Wild" out of Wildfires - Harnessing Data to Predict, Prevent, and Prepare for the Future

Background Climate change and human activity are intensifying wildfires, endangering health, ecosystems, and infrastructure, especially in wild-urban interface regions. This study examined the impact of informal communication, public perception, and psychological readiness on preparedness and health outcomes in Los Angeles and Hawaii (USA), Asturias (Spain), and Canada. It also explored the roles of government response, social media, and perceptions of wildfire causes in shaping these outcomes. Methods A cross-sectional survey of 156 participants from wildfire-prone areas was conducted using convenience and snowball sampling. A 77-item questionnaire in English or Spanish assessed health, preparedness, and communication. Data analysis included descriptive statistics, chi-square tests, and Poisson Generalized Linear Mixed Models (GLMM). Chi-square analysis was used to test hypotheses about associations between perceived evacuation safety, communication tools, health impacts, and government response effectiveness. Poisson GLMM examined whether perceived wildfire impact was predicted by social media use, perceived wildfire drivers, and perceived government role. Fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) identified region-specific condition combinations linked to effective wildfire preparedness and governance outcomes. Results Participants rated wildfire preparedness and communication as moderately effective, with only 19% finding evacuation plans very accessible. Over half reported physical (61%) or respiratory (58%) symptoms. Statistical models linked evacuation confidence and air purifier distribution to reduced respiratory issues. Social media information and community engagement increased trust but contributed to confusion. Social media significantly influenced perceived wildfire impact, while perceptions of government response did not. Fuzzy-set analysis revealed context-specific governance patterns, with both institutional and informal strategies shaping effective wildfire responses across regions. Conclusions This study highlights critical gaps in wildfire preparedness, health protection, and emergency communication, especially in high-risk areas. Strengthening multi-channel communication, infrastructure, and community engagement is essential amid escalating climate-driven wildfire threats.