Integrated Assessment and Spatial Coordination Analysis of Water Resources Carrying Capacity in the Changbai Mountain Headwater Region Using Cloud Model and Geodetector Approach

The evaluation of Water Resources Carrying Capacity (WRCC) plays a critical role in understanding regional resource dynamics and guiding the sustainable allocation of water resources. Addressing the inherent uncertainties in hydrological systems and the subjectivity associated with indicator weighting, this study focuses on the headwater region of the Changbai Mountain area. A total of 28 indicators were selected from the "production–living–ecology" framework. A cloud model integrated with the entropy weight method was applied to comprehensively assess WRCC, while a geographical detector model was employed to identify key driving factors. Furthermore, the Coupled Coordination Degree Model (CCDM) was utilized to investigate the spatial coordination among WRCC subsystems across multiple administrative units. Key findings include: (1) From 2013 to 2022, the WRCC levels in Fusong County predominantly falled within levels II (Good load bearing) and III (Loadable weak), while Jingyu County and Changbai Korean Autonomous County were primarily at level IV (Loadable not loadable), and Linjiang City was largely at level III (Loadable weak). (2) WRCC indices generally declined from northeast to southwest. (3) Urbanization rate (0.712), water consumption rate for forestry (0.584), animal husbandry and fishery (0.539) were the most significant drivers. (4) Coupling degrees among regions ranged from 0.973 to 0.996, with most areas transitioning from imbalance to coordination, except Jingyu County. The study provides scientific insights for optimizing water resource allocation and balancing economic development, human livelihoods, and ecological preservation in the Changbai Mountain area and the middle and lower reaches of the cities in Jilin Province.