Carbon-heat neutralization effect for achieving carbon neutrality in urban agglomeration

As pivotal nodes for carbon emissions and urban heat island (UHI) dynamics, carbon-heat interactions in urban agglomerations are fundamental to global carbon neutrality. Urban green infrastructure, a cornerstone of urban natural capital, mitigates UHI but faces underexplored carbon sequestration capacities—a critical gap in sustainability science. This research employs InVEST-PLUS to characterize current/future carbon storage spatial pattern and CA-ANN modeling to project land heat island pattern across scales. Integrating spatial analytical frameworks, it quantifies spatiotemporal carbon-heat dynamics and identifies climate mitigation pathways. Key findings reveal declining carbon storage from 3.626×10⁸ to 3.528×10⁸ t, northeastward UHI expansion linked to urban sprawl, and persistent heat intensity through 2030–2060. Spatial heterogeneity in carbon-heat coupling shows stable negative correlations, amplified under sprawl solution. A 1×10³ t carbon loss correlates with 0.82–1.01°C UHI increases, exacerbated by future urban sprawl. This work enhances carbon-heat dynamics understanding, evaluates ecological security, and informs regional climate adaptation strategies.