Networked Trends and Mathematical Modelling of Intimate Partner Violence in Canada: A Decade of Empirical Evidence (2014–2023)

Objectives This study examines how intimate partner violence (IPV) in Canada has evolved from 2014 to 2023, with a focus on demographic, geographic, and relational factors. By integrating the police-reported incidents with self-reported survey data, we explored where and among whom IPV is most concentrated. We also focused on the ongoing issue of underreported male victimisation along with the increased vulnerability of young adults and individuals residing in the rural and the northern provincial communities. Methods We analysed the data from two national sources: the Uniform Crime Reporting (UCR) Survey and the General Social Survey (GSS) on victimisation. Incidence rates were standardised across the age, gender, and region using mid-year population estimates. To move beyond the basic case counts, we applied the conditional probability models and relational network analysis, which allowed us to trace how IPV is patterned by relationship type and social context. Results Women aged between 25 and 34 experienced the highest police-reported IPV rates in 2023 (712 per 100,000), while men in the same group reported 377 per 100,000. Rates were especially high in the rural and remote regions, with territories like Nunavut reporting the highest incidence rates. Most cases involved current or former partners, and self-reported surveys also revealed a notable gap in male victim representation in police records. Network analysis showed IPV clustering around particular relationship types, especially post-separation. Conclusions The findings point out substantial variation in IPV risk across Canada. Uniform prevention strategies risk overlooking groups that are most affected—such as young adults, rural residents, and male survivors. Closing the gap between institutional data and real experience is essential for improving both outreach and support.