Quantifying Environmental and Energy Assets for the Geopolitics of Climate Change Mitigation

How do climate change impacts and mitigation efforts reshape the geopolitical distribution of economic assets? This study uses integrated assessment models, climate projections, economic damage models, and biosphere data to assess the change in the economic value of fossil fuels, climate change damages, renewable energy, and land carbon sequestration under different climate change mitigation scenarios. Using k-means clustering, we group countries into five distinct clusters based on their economic, energy and environmental stakes, revealing disparities in economic losses and mitigation benefits. A similarity analysis uncovers shared structural characteristics across countries. Notably, the world’s largest economies—the USA, the EU, and China—fall into the Moderate-impact cluster, such that the strongest economic power lies within countries without the strongest incentives to push for decarbonization. Our findings provide stakeholders with information about possible allies for climate action and we highlight how geopolitical roles may be used to enhance climate change mitigation.