Drought Analysis In Turkey Using SIR Differential Equations

Monthly time series of precipitation data recorded at the 197 climatological and meteorological stations of the Turkish Meteorological Service (TMS) were obtained. Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) analysis was applied to the precipitation data, and the SPI drought classification was integrated into the differential equation (DE) model for drought estimation in the study. Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and coefficient of determination (R2) values showed the accuracy of the applied model. The findings obtained in this study did not contradict those of previous studies. The DE model indicated that the vulnerability of Turkey to drought events could be analyzed by dividing the time series into 5-year periods. According to the modified DE model, the severity and frequency of moderate and extreme droughts have increased. When evaluated in the context of the classical modified DE model, likely the incidence, severity, and duration of droughts in Turkey will increase in the coming years because of climate change impacts. In future research, it may be possible to understand the effects of drought more clearly by trying more models and integrating more data into drought models. The spatial distribution of drought can be determined by applying the differential equations model on a station or regional basis.