Dead Ends, Lost Time: Rural Mobility Constraints

Despite substantial global investments in rural road construction, a critical infrastructural deficiency—the prevalence of dead-end roads—continues to undermine mobility, exacerbates social inequities, and impedes sustainable development in rural communities worldwide. This study establishes the causal relationship between dead-end road density and travel outcomes, revealing how network topology fundamentally shapes rural accessibility patterns beyond simple distance metrics. Applying Double/debiased Machine Learning to data from 5,415 rural residents across China, we demonstrate that each unit increase in dead-end road density significantly extends travel time for discretionary activities by 26–40 minutes—effectively doubling average journey durations—while non-discretionary trips remain largely unaffected. Our causal analysis further reveals striking demographic heterogeneity, with elderly, male, higher-income, and self-employed individuals experiencing disproportionately greater mobility burdens. These findings challenge conventional rural development approaches that prioritise road quantity over network quality and connectivity. By identifying how specific network deficiencies systematically disadvantage certain demographic groups and activity types, we provide critical insights for policymakers seeking to enhance rural accessibility, promote inclusive development, and reduce infrastructure-induced inequalities. Strategic interventions targeting dead-end road reduction represent a high-leverage opportunity to transform rural infrastructure from a constraint into a catalyst for sustainable development.