Association between the dietary index for gut microbiota and heart failure: NHANES 2007-2018

Background With the global incidence of heart failure (HF) on a continuous upward trend, greater attention has been placed on the part played by gut microbiota in this condition. The Dietary Index for Gut Microbiota (DI-GM) is an evidence-supported tool created to evaluate the influence of diet on gut microbiota. Nevertheless, the possible association between DI-GM and the risk of HF demands more in-depth exploration. This study aimed to examine the relationship between DI-GM and the risk of HF while also assessing its capability to forecast the occurrence and progression of the disease. Methods This study encompassed 30,349 people aged 20 years or above. The participants were sourced from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) database covering the period from 2007 to 2018. To evaluate the association between the DI-GM and the risk of HF, several statistical techniques were utilized. These techniques included weighted multivariable logistic regression, restricted cubic splines (RCS), threshold effect evaluation, and subgroup analysis. Additionally, the Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator (LASSO) regression approach was applied to pinpoint covariates associated with the risk of HF. To gauge the efficacy of the nomogram model, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used for the evaluation. Results After accounting for all confounding variables, a negative association was discovered between the DI-GM and the risk of HF. This negative correlation was more evident in the cohort with a high DI-GM value (OR = 0.78, 95% CI: 0.64–0.96, P  < 0.05). An analysis using RCS showed a significant non-linear negative relationship between DI-GM and the risk of HF ( P -nonlinearity = 0.030). A scrutiny of the threshold effect posited that the safeguarding influence of DI-GM reached a stable condition once the score went beyond 2.00. The forecasting model, chosen via LASSO regression, exhibited robust discriminatory ability. It achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.891 (95% CI: 0.881-0.900). Conclusion Elevated DI-GM scores are linked to a decreased incidence of HF. Maintaining a DI-GM score of 2 or higher can improve the efficacy of HF prevention.