Effective Modes of Transboundary Water-Related Cooperation to Turn Future Climate Conflict Risks into Opportunities

Geopolitical conflicts can rapidly escalate over water resources, particularly in regions already facing vulnerabilities amplified by climate change. At the same time, environmental challenges can be viewed as opportunities for transboundary cooperation, offering a path to mutual understanding and collaboration. This study aims to identify and analyze the effectiveness of water-related cooperation modes in mitigating conflicts, particularly under climate change scenarios, using a framework that leverages large language models (LLMs), retrieval-augmented generation (RAG), and interpretable machine learning. We analyze over 2,000 global transboundary water cooperation and conflicts cases from 1951 to 2019, going beyond the limitations of small-scale qualitative studies and enabling granular evaluation of impacts. The study identifies six cooperation modes: Cross-Border Basin Agreements, Collaborative Planning and Adaptation Strategies, Joint Water Allocation Models, Joint Data-Sharing Systems, Transboundary Water Quality Standards, and Coordinated Hydropower Operations. The evaluation shows that integrating Cross-Border Basin Agreements, Collaborative Planning and Adaptation Strategies, and Joint Water Allocation Models are highly effective, with the potential to mitigate around 1.11 (95% CI: 0.32–1.90) conflicts over five years. Cross-Border Basin Agreements and Transboundary Water Quality are recommended for less affluent countries, while Joint Data-Sharing Systems are most effective for countries under high water stress. Climate change will intensify water-related conflicts in the future, doubling conflicts in South America, Middle Southern Africa, and Eastern Asia by 2050, while climate action could nearly eliminate conflicts in high-risk regions and cut them by half in many other regions. However, the effectiveness of cooperative strategies is limited in less developed regions, underscoring the urgent need for international support and inclusive diplomacy to ensure global water security and stability.