Time Series Analysis of Human-Elephant Conflict Mortality Rates: A Case Study of the Coimbatore Forest Area

Human-elephant conflict (HEC) presents significant challenges to conservation and human safety, particularly in biodiversity hotspots like the Coimbatore Forest Area. This study employs time-series analysis to evaluate HEC-related human and elephant mortality from 1999 to 2022, identifying trends, seasonal patterns, and forecasts using ARIMA models.For human mortality, the ARIMA (2,1,0) model captures an increasing trend with high variability, forecasting 8–9 annual deaths by 2030, albeit with uncertainty. For elephant mortality, the ARIMA (0,1,1) model predicts a steady rise in fatalities, from 18.83 deaths in 2023 to 21.35 deaths by 2027. These forecasts highlight critical periods, such as dry seasons, for targeted interventions.The study emphasizes the escalating impact of HEC due to habitat encroachment, seasonal migration, and resource scarcity. Recommended mitigation strategies include improved fencing, early warning systems, and habitat restoration. By combining data-driven insights with community engagement, the research offers actionable solutions to foster sustainable coexistence between humans and elephants, supporting policymakers and conservationists.