The global, regional, and national burden of colon cancer caused by insufficient intake of grains in 74 countries , 1990–2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021

To analyze the global burden of colon cancer caused by insufficient intake of grains (1990–2021) and project trends through 2040. Using Global Burden of Disease 2021 data, we assessed age-standardized Deaths, DALYs, YLLs, and YLDs across 74 countries. Temporal trends were stratified by age, sex, and Socio-Demographic Index (SDI). Age-period-cohort (APC) models quantified demographic drivers, while Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) mapped spatial heterogeneity. Airma models projected future burden. In 2021, insufficient grain intake drove escalating colon cancer burdens globally, with higher Deaths, DALYs, YLLs, and YLDs in males (vs. females). Mortality peaked at ages 80–84 (high SDI) and 65–69 (low SDI), while DALYs peaked at 70–74 (high SDI) and 60–64 (low SDI). Despite declining EAPC trend, absolute Deaths and DALYs are projected to rise by 2040. Insufficient grain intake remains a critical modifiable risk for colon cancer, with persistent socioeconomic inequities. Targeted interventions, such as enhancing preventive nutrition, early screening, and equitable healthcare access, are imperative to mitigate rising case numbers and narrow health disparities, particularly in high-risk regions.