Agricultural Land Use Change in Ghana: First Evidence of Cocoa-to-Rubber Conversion Using Remote Sensing and Farmer Surveys

Cocoa remains Ghana’s principal cash crop and a livelihood source for over a million farmers. However, recent declines in yield, price volatility, and land pressure from illegal mining have diminished its economic appeal, leading to a shift toward more profitable alternatives like natural rubber. Here we show for the first time that rubber cultivation has significantly expanded in Ghana’s Huni Valley, replacing 23.5% of former cocoa fields between 2008 and 2020. This study integrates remote sensing, GIS analysis, and farmer surveys to assess land use change and the socio-economic drivers of crop transition. Landsat imagery was used to classify land cover changes, while chi-square tests were applied to determine key decision-making factors among 390 farmers. Results reveal a 4.3% decline in cocoa coverage and a 4.8% increase in rubber plantations. The shift is significantly associated with farmer age, years of cocoa experience, and perceived profitability (p < 0.05). Farmers cited rubber’s lower labor demands and higher, stable returns as critical incentives. The Huni Valley’s agricultural landscape is undergoing structural change, driven by economic rationality and systemic challenges within the cocoa sector. This is the first comprehensive study combining spatial and social data to explain cocoa-to-rubber conversion in Ghana, offering new insights for land use policy and agricultural extension services. We recommend targeted interventions such as price stabilization, improved cocoa varieties, and land tenure reforms to counter the accelerating decline in cocoa production and ensure sustainable land use in Ghana’s cocoa belt.