Unlocking innovation in climate services through meaningful co-production for nature-based solutions

Co-production is essential for creating climate services that are usable and useful. Yet, tokenistic and expert-driven supply-side approaches persist. We investigate the gap between ‘expressed’ user needs (services currently used) and ‘felt’ user needs (desires for new services) for decision-making in nature-based solutions in Sub-Saharan Africa. To show the limitations of tokenistic co-production or standard supply-side processes for uncovering the full range of needs, we use once-off interviews with over 500 respondents at seven regional case sites. We find significant use-need overlaps (Cohen’s Kappa 0.4 to 0.5, p < 0.0001), with 39–53% of respondents’ existing use priorities exactly matching their desired need priorities. Stakeholder type did not predict use-need overlap (rate ratios: 0.95 to 0.99; p > 0.08), though location did (rate ratios: 0.88–1.27). While nearly all (96%) respondents reported using climate services for decision-making in nature-based solutions, findings show that it is critical to address their limitations and co-develop new services. Here the findings show that the focus should be integrating knowledges (Indigenous and/or local with scientific); tailoring integrated climate risk information to multi-local scale decision-making contexts; improving accessibility, timeliness, and trust; actualising appropriate community-based and digital sharing channels; and strengthening climate change literacy. Our results demonstrate that tokenistic co-production or supply-side processes are insufficient for uncovering the full breadth of climate service needs, and highlight the importance of co-production that is inclusive, user-oriented, and where users and producers work to surface all needs, including unrecognised or unarticulated ones.