Global Climate Governance in 2025: Rethinking the Role of the UNFCCC and the COP Process

The Conference of the Parties (COP) has become the central forum for international climate governance, facilitating landmark agreements and institutional innovations under the UNFCCC. It is critical in advancing climate ambition, shaping global norms, and mobilizing finance. However, its growing procedural complexity and political centrality raise new questions about its effectiveness in delivering transformative climate outcomes. While existing literature has focused heavily on negotiation outcomes and treaty design, it has insufficiently examined the underlying structural and institutional dynamics that hinder implementation. Little attention has been paid to how compliance incentives, mechanisms, and governance fragmentation influence national and global climate performance. This study aims to assess the institutional effectiveness of the COP process in achieving global climate goals while identifying key systemic barriers and overlooked opportunities for innovation. The research integrates a systematic review from 1990 to 2024 with a structured cause-and-effect analytical framework. The results reveal five interconnected dynamics that currently impede the COP’s capacity to deliver results: (1) institutional innovation accompanied by procedural drift; (2) a political economy of compliance shaped by domestic incentives; (3) climate diplomacy fatigue and declining outcome ambition; (4) broadened participation without power redistribution; and (5) fragmentation as a potential strength through polycentric governance models. These findings suggest that, to remain effective, the COP must evolve into a more flexible, participatory, and equity-oriented platform. Ultimately, embedding accountability, enhancing structural inclusion, and leveraging governance diversity are essential for achieving global climate goals and restoring legitimacy to the multilateral process. Keywords: Climate change, climate governance, UNFCCC, Conference of the Parties (COP), climate policy.