Predicting Karnataka’s GSDP Trajectory: Data-Driven Trends and Strategic Policy Directions

This study presents an empirical forecast of Karnataka’s Gross State Domestic Product (GSDP) for the period 2025–2029 using the ARIMA (1, 1, 2) time series model. Research fills a significant gap in the literature by providing a statistically robust and policy-relevant forecast for Karnataka, which is one of India's fastest-growing and diverse economy. The methodology uses 80% and 95% confidence intervals to measure economic uncertainty and show how external factors like global economic shifts, inflation, and policy reforms can affect forecast variability. The study offers policy recommendations for infrastructure, sectoral diversification, skill development, and budgetary resilience. and also, the study emphasizes the need for data-driven policymaking to promote inclusive economic growth and long-term stability in Karnataka.