A Weibull Distribution-Based Method for Estimating Soil Seed Bank Longevity in Annual Invasive Plants

Background Seed longevity is a key determinant of population persistence, spread, and outbreak potential in annual invasive plant species. Understanding seed bank dynamics is crucial for determining colonization timing and assessing invasion potential, thereby supporting sustainable weed management strategies. While soil seed bank fluctuations have become a focus in invasion biology area, efficient and accurate methods for evaluating seed bank longevity in annual invasive plants remain scarce so far. Results In this study, we focus on a representative annual globally malignant invasive plant buffalo bur Solanum rostratum , investigating seed viability dynamics under accelerated aging conditions (60°C and 85% relative humidity) across multiple regions and collection years. We developed a three-parameter Weibull distribution model to characterize seed aging and applied it to assess S. rostratum seed bank viability in both grassland and abandoned farmland habitats. The results showed that S. rostratum seeds lost viability rapidly within three days under accelerated aging condition. Seeds from different regions in the same year exhibited similar aging patterns, while interannual variation led to significantly divergent aging curves. Polynomial regression of viability data estimated natural seed longevity at approximately 9.91 years. This study demonstrates that combining accelerated aging with the three-parameter Weibull distribution provides an effective approach for evaluating seed longevity and seed bank persistence. Our findings highlight the feasibility of combining accelerated aging and the three-parameter Weibull distribution model to evaluate seed longevity and seed bank viability. Conclusion It proposes a practical and efficient approach to estimate seed bank persistence in annual invasive plants and highlights the critical role of persistent seed banks in facilitating S. rostratum 's invasion success, offering a practical framework for assessing invasion risks. These results contribute important theoretical foundations for developing ecologically sustainable weed control strategies.