Environmental and societal costs of maize production decrease by addressing the uncertainty in nitrogen rate recommendations

Finding optimum nitrogen (N) rates for maize is essential to balance crop productivity and farmers’ profit while reducing negative environmental and social consequences associated with N fertilization. However, the determination of optimum N rates is subject to substantial uncertainty linked to soil, plant, and weather interactions. By accounting for this uncertainty, we demonstrate that fertilizer N rates can be reduced by 12 to 16% with negligible risk of maize yield losses across the US Corn Belt region. This decrease in N fertilizer application can reduce N2O omissions by 10% and N leaching by 13% with a concomitant social benefit ranging from $230 to more than $500 M, due to improved air and water quality. Thus, an initial call for action to reduce the environmental footprint of US maize production should focus on accounting for uncertainties in the current N recommendation systems.