Land-Use and Land-Cover Changes: Forecast of Curve Number Parameters Watersheds for Paraíba, Brazil

Land Use and Cover Changes (LULCC) significantly impact the hydrological cycle and promote increased impervious areas. This work identified the causes of changes in LULCC through predictive modeling for curve number (CN) in Paraíba, Brazil. A dynamic model (DINAMICA EGO) was used with input data from 2000 to 2010, calibrated for simulations of future LULC scenarios and a forecast of CN parameters for the entire area of the state. The results show a growing trend in non-vegetated areas and an increase in impervious areas of 17.20% in 30 years. As coastal areas are the most populated, the results show increased CN values with possible more significant occurrences and impacts of floods. In this study, LULCC maps and simulated CN values for 2040 are valuable for planning at different scales (basins or cities), mainly due to the lack of information on water and urban management plans and policies.