The global implications of uncertainty in China's climate policy delivery

The delivery of China's climate policy carries substantial global implications, yet persistent gaps between policy targets and on-the-ground progress raise critical concerns about policy credibility. This study presents the first structured credibility assessment of 289 targets across 58 national climate and energy policies. It applies a morphological scenario framework to analyse the interplay between policy uncertainty, and socioeconomic and technological drivers. These scenarios are implemented in an integrated assessment model under two global contexts: one aligned with current NDCs, and another reflecting global net-zero ambition. We find that China’s timely or accelerated achievement of its net-zero target could help buffer the global consequences of insufficient ambition elsewhere. Full policy delivery to net-zero by China in 2050 reduces global CO₂ to 13 Gt, compared to 25 Gt in the absence of such policies. However, uncertainty in the delivery of China's domestic policy alone could lead to a difference in cumulative global emission reductions of up to ~600 GtCO₂ by 2100, equivalent to a ~0.2 °C warming difference. These findings illuminate the structural implications of China’s policy delivery and its global significance for climate cooperation.