Non-random patterns in the co-occurrence and accumulation of adverse life events in two national panel datasets

Adverse life events (ALEs), such as illness, bereavement, and accidents, can have profound consequences for physical and mental health. Although existing research highlights structural predictors of ALEs, such as personality and socioeconomic status, less is known about patterns in ALEs themselves. How do events cluster and accumulate over time? Using generalized linear mixed-effects models, we study yearly self-reported ALEs in two panel datasets, the Swiss Household Panel (n = 16,946, 210,031 person-years) and the Household, Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia (n = 25,803, 113,605 person-years). We identify widespread contemporaneous and lag-1 associations between ALEs. The twenty-year accumulation of ALE counts deviates substantially from a random process and is better described by a self-reinforcing process, in which ALEs increase the risk of future ALEs. For all analyses, variance in ALE risk was explained largely by unobserved heterogeneity between individuals and households. Structural patterns in ALEs should inform our conceptual and statistical models, as well as our prevention strategies.