Plant range disequilibrium in Europe is shaped more by disturbance than climate change

Species distributions often fail to match the climatic conditions that could sustain them, resulting in range disequilibrium. While recent focus has been on such mismatches arising from lags in biotic response to climate change (e.g., extinction lags and colonization delays), disturbance processes can also facilitate or prevent species occupying otherwise climatically suitable areas by altering vegetation structure and local light regimes. However, comparative evidence across taxa and regions remains scarce. Here, we assess climate change and disturbance-driven disequilibrium for 3,047 vascular plant species using species distribution models and > 1.1 million vegetation plots across Europe. Disturbance-driven disequilibrium was near-universal (99%), with severity peaking at intermediate disturbance levels and spatial structuring centered around these peaks—likely reflecting thresholds where shifts in disturbance regimes tip vegetation between open and closed states. Disequilibrium due to recent climate change was weaker but evident in 47% of species. For most of these species, ranges were best predicted by climates 10–18 years prior to sampling, and most pronounced among species from closed-canopy conditions, likely reflecting microclimatic buffering. These findings demonstrate that disturbance, not just climate change, drives widespread disequilibrium in range dynamics among European flora. Accounting for both disturbance regimes and lagged climate response is essential for predicting biodiversity change and guiding conservation strategies that reflect ecological reality—not just climatic potential.