Self-projected demise of nomadic lifestyle in pastoral Mongol families

The Gobi Desert is a particularly interesting region to study the evolution of nomadic pastoralism because of its harsh climate. Several studies confirm the anthropogenic origin of desertification in Mongolia. Pastoralism suffers from the strong seasonal and interannual fluctuations, from droughts to flood risks, as well as the regular natural disasters known as zud , with “big zuds ” covering Mongolia every ten years or so. Although the past impact of zuds on these variables has been discussed, it has not been quantified. In addition, when considering the future, zuds could become more and more frequent due to climate change, but their long-term impacts on nomadic populations and pastoralism remain unknown. In this article, assessed the future of nomadism and pastoralism in a context of environmental change based on a dual approach: a correlative work based on a demographic database, and a causal work based on a serious game. We showed that families were resilient to previous zuds , probably because they occurred at large ten-year time intervals. However, our serious game also stressed that successive future zuds could exceed the resilience capacity of nomadic families. This could lead to the quick disappearance of nomadic pastoralism in Mongolia, in as few as three years of successive zuds .