Regime Shift in Global Mean Sea Level and Its Components in the Early 2010s

Abrupt changes at decadal time scale are recurrent events in the modern climate system. These events are generally attributed to internal climate variability, although external forcing factors are also invoked. Using multiple trend-change detection methods, this study reports such a regime shift early the 2010s in the altimetry-based global mean sea level record, as well as in its thermosteric and barystatic (i.e., thermal and mass) components. Shift in the latter is mostly due to the terrestrial water storage contribution. The rate of rise of the global mean sea level increases abruptly from 2.6 +/- 0.3 mm/yr over the 2002-2011 decade to 4.1 +/- 0.3 mm/yr over 2012-2021. Regime shifts in numerous climate parameters have also been reported at this epoch, suggesting a global coherent phenomenon. Both internal climate variability and increased radiative forcing are potential drivers of the early 2010s climate shift observed in sea level and other climate parameters.