Global, regional, and national lifetime risks of developing benign prostatic hyperplasia in men aged over 40: a population-based cross-sectional study from 1990 to 2021

Background： Benign prostatic hyperplasia (BPH) is a prevalent condition among older men that significantly reduces quality of life. Despite its global impact, comprehensive estimates of lifetime risk remain limited. This study aims to quantify the lifetime risk of BPH at both global and regional levels using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021. Materials and Methods： We estimated the lifetime risk of developing BPH in men aged over 40 using the “adjusted for multiple primaries (AMP)” method, derived from age-specific incidence rates provided by GBD. The analysis included data from 204 countries and regions covering the period from 1990 to 2021, stratified by age, region, and Sociodemographic Index (SDI). Results： In 2021, the global lifetime risk of BPH from age 40 to death was estimated at 27.29% (95% CI: 27.26–27.31), with significant regional and socioeconomic inequalities. Eastern Europe exhibited the highest risk (37.57%), while Central Sub-Saharan Africa had the lowest (19.90%). Across all regions, the majority of cases were observed in individuals aged 50 to 70. Furthermore, between 1990 and 2021, the global lifetime risk of BPH showed a gradual increase. Projections indicate that this risk will remain stable over the next 30 years, with pronounced regional disparities expected to persist. Conclusions: This study offers a comprehensive assessment of the global lifetime risk of BPH, revealing significant regional variations and age-related trends. These findings underscore the need for targeted prevention and management strategies, particularly for high-risk regions and men aged 50–70, to reduce the global burden of BPH.