DEA-based impact assessment and forecasting: The case of SDG compliance in Europe after Covid-19

This paper presents a comprehensive evaluation of Sustainable Development Goals (SDG) compliance across Europe’s NUTS2 regions from 2019 to 2024, encompassing the period immediately before, during, and following the Covid-19 pandemic, with extended forecasts up to 2030. Using Eurostat data, we construct a dynamic index based on Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA). The results, as illustrated by density plots over time, highlight a significant bimodality in regional SDG compliance trajectories throughout the post-pandemic period. Furthermore, forecasts indicate that SDG compliance is expected to be only partially achieved, showing a significant regional disparity that will be unlikely to diminish without intervention. These findings underscore the need for spatially differentiated policy responses to address the divergence in SDG compliance trajectories across European regions.