Enhanced Language Models for Predicting and Understanding HIV Care Disengagement: A Case Study in Tanzania

Summary Sustained engagement in HIV care and adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART) are essential for achieving the UNAIDS "95-95-95" targets. Despite increased ART access, disengagement from care remains a significant issue, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa. Traditional machine learning (ML) models have shown moderate success in predicting care disengagement, which would enable early intervention. We develop an enhanced large language model (LLM) fine-tuned with electronic medical records (EMRs) to predict people at risk of disengaging from HIV care in Tanzania and to provide interpretative insights into modifiable risk factors. Methods We developed a novel AI model by enhancing a pre-trained LLM (LLaMA 3.1, an open-source pre-trained LLM released by Meta) using routinely collected EMRs from Tanzania's National HIV Care and Treatment Program from January 1, 2018, to June 30, 2023 (4,809,765 records for 261,192 people) to identify people at risk of disengaging from HIV care or developing adverse outcomes. Outcomes included risk of ART non-adherence, non-suppressed viral load, and loss to follow-up. Models were evaluated internally (Kagera region) and externally (Geita region), with performance compared against state-of-art ML models and zero-shot LLMs. Additionally, a team of HIV physicians in Tanzania assessed the LLM's predictions along with LLM provided justifications for a subset of patient records to evaluate their clinical relevance and reasoning. Findings The enhanced LLMs consistently outperformed the supervised ML model and zero-shot LLMs across all outcomes in both internal and external validation datasets. When focusing on the 25% of PLHIV predicted as most likely to lost-to-follow-up (LTFU), the model correctly identified 78% (2,515 of 3,224) of people living with HIV (PLHIV) genuinely at risk in internal validation and 73% (7,105 of 9,733) in external validation. Attention score analysis indicated that the enhanced LLM focused on keywords such as gaps in follow-up care and ART adherence. The human expert evaluation showed alignment between clinician assessments and the LLM's predictions in 65% of cases, with experts finding the model's justifications reasonable and clinically relevant in 92.3% of aligned cases. Interpretation If implemented in HIV clinics, this LLM-based AI model could help allocate resources efficiently and deliver targeted interventions, improving retention in care and advancing the UNAIDS "95-95-95" targets. By functioning like a clinician—analyzing patient summaries, predicting risks, and offering reasoning—the enhanced LLM could be integrated into clinical workflows to complement human expertise, facilitating timely interventions and informed decision-making. If implemented widely, this human-AI collaboration has the potential to improve health outcomes for people living with HIV and reduce onward transmission. Funding The study was supported by a grant from the US National Institutes of Health (NIH): NIH NIMH 1R01MH125746.