Data-Driven Insights into Human–Gaur Conflicts: Spatiotemporal Trends and Risk Mapping Across Tamil Nadu, India

Human–wildlife conflict (HWC) is one of the most pressing conservation challenges, particularly in shared landscapes where humans and wildlife are adversely affected. Despite various mitigation efforts globally, the frequency of HWC continues to rise. Among the conflict-prone species, the Indian gaur (Bos gaurus) has increasingly been involved in such interactions across southern India. To support the development of long-term mitigation strategies for Human–Gaur Conflict (HGC), we conducted a comprehensive study using data collected from compensation records across 48 forest divisions in Tamil Nadu between 2016 and 2024. We analyzed spatial and temporal trends, predicted conflict risk zones using ensemble modeling, and identified the key drivers influencing HGC. Our findings reveal that conflict intensity was highest in the Nilgiri division, followed by Dharmapuri and Kodaikanal. Crop damage was the predominant conflict type, followed by human injuries, with incident peaks observed during December to March. Elevation emerged as the most influential predictor in the risk models, with a clear positive correlation showing that the conflict risk increased with rising elevation. The model also predicted that 18,335 km² of the state falls under conflict risk zones, accounting for approximately 14.1% of Tamil Nadu's total geographical area. This study provides critical insights into the spatial ecology of HGC and highlights the utility of predictive modeling in identifying high-risk zones. The outcomes can inform conservationists and forest managers in designing and implementing proactive mitigation measures, especially in areas predicted to have a high likelihood of future conflict.