Characterization of Geomagnetic Storms Using Superposed Epoch and Correlation Analyses: A Study of ICME and Magnetic Cloud Events (1998–2018) for Space Weather Forecasting

This study analyzes geomagnetic disturbances from 1998 to 2018, focusing on the role of Interplanetary Coronal Mass Ejections (ICMEs) and Magnetic Clouds (MCs), particularly their impact when accompanied by shocks. Events are classified into four intensity levels—Quiet, Weak, Moderate, and Intense—and trends are studied across Solar Cycles 23 and 24. Using superposed analysis (via Fortran programming) and correlation analysis (via Origin software), the research examines relationships between storm intensity (Dst index) and plasma/field parameters, including solar wind speed (Vmax), magnetic field strength (Bmax), southward Bz, and convective electric field (Ey). Data is sourced from the OMNIWeb database, and events are categorized using the Richardson and Cane catalog. The study reveals that shocks significantly enhance the geoeffectiveness of ICMEs and MCs, with storms associated with these shocks showing the strongest geomagnetic responses.By comparing events with and without shocks, this work demonstrates that southward Bz and energy coupling parameters like Vmax × Bzmin are the most reliable predictors of storm strength. The results provide valuable insights into the drivers of geomagnetic activity, emphasizing the role of magnetic field orientation and energy transfer in shaping the intensity of geomagnetic disturbances. This analysis offers important contributions to space weather forecasting, enhancing the understanding of solar-terrestrial interactions and supporting efforts to mitigate the effects of geomagnetic storms on technological systems. These findings support improved understanding and forecasting of geomagnetic storms and their technological impacts.