Hydroclimatic Risk Analysis in the Usumacinta River Basin

This case study explores the impact of climate variability and change on the Usumacinta River, the most water-abundant river in Mexico. Climate change has intensified extreme hydrometeorological events, increasing the vulnerability of communities along the river. Historical climate data from meteorological stations, along with models (CNRMCM5, GFDL-CM3, HADGEM2-ES), were used to project future climate scenarios under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5. Results show a predicted increase in precipitation and temperature by 2040, with maximum temperatures rising by up to 5°C. Using the modified Svanidze method, the study forecasts a 28% increase in river flow compared to the highest recorded flood in 2008, posing significant risks to local populations and infrastructure. The findings highlight the need for resilient infrastructure, improved water management, and climate adaptation strategies to mitigate future flood risks. The Usumacinta River plays a crucial role in regional biodiversity and economic activities, making it essential to prioritize flood prevention and disaster preparedness. This research provides critical insights for strengthening the resilience of communities in the face of growing climate threats.