Flexible School Attendance Strategies for Epidemic Outbreaks: Simulation-Based Decision Support

Background Emerging infectious diseases require time before appropriate countermeasures can be established because of the uncertainty surrounding their infection characteristics. During the COVID-19 pandemic, this delay led to significant disruptions in both the education sector and society as a whole. However, it is challenging to impose uniformly strict infection control measures in educational settings because the importance of continuity of education and social stability must also be considered. Methods Characteristics of emerging infectious diseases, such as incubation period, infectious period, transmission potential, and asymptomatic rate, gradually become clearer over time. This study therefore proposed a framework to evaluate effective infection control measures at different stages (early, middle, and late) of an emerging infectious disease. This framework enables decision-making about educational opportunities and social continuity to be adjusted to reflect the characteristics of the disease known at any given time. The value of this framework was verified through simulations. It was used to compare the effectiveness of four staggered school attendance strategies recommended by UNESCO, under various disease characteristics (incubation period, infectious period, transmission potential, and asymptomatic rate). Results The most effective intervention varies with the characteristics of the infectious disease (incubation period, infectious period, transmission potential, and asymptomatic rate), demonstrating the importance of our framework. This framework makes it possible to select appropriate school strategies based on the known characteristics of the disease at different stages of an outbreak, when considering the school environment and economic conditions. Conclusions This study proposed a framework for the phased adjustment of infection control measures in schools with increasing knowledge of the characteristics of an emerging infectious disease. Simulations demonstrated the effectiveness of the framework. This framework enables the selection of effective staggered school attendance methods that balance infection suppression with educational and social considerations. The framework could be extended to other environments, such as workplaces and public facilities, providing a comprehensive infection control strategy that mitigates social and educational burdens. Future research should explore the framework’s application to a broader range of infectious disease scenarios to enhance its feasibility for real-world policy implementation.