Navigating Great Power Rivalry: Indonesia–Russia Defense Diplomacy as Strategic Hedging in the Indo-Pacific

This study explores Indonesia’s defense diplomacy with Russia as a strategic hedging mechanism amid intensifying United States–China rivalry in the Indo-Pacific. Rather than pursuing strict alignment, Indonesia seeks to diversify its defense partnerships while upholding non-alignment principles. Drawing from defense white papers, strategic institutional data, and international legal instruments including CAATSA, the research analyzes how military cooperation with Russia, through arms procurement, joint exercises, and potential technology transfer, supports Indonesia’s Minimum Essential Force (MEF) roadmap and enhances strategic autonomy. Specifically, this cooperation bolsters Indonesia’s deterrence capability by expanding its arsenal beyond Western suppliers, potentially increasing its leverage in maritime and airspace security operations. It also contributes to Indonesia’s limited power projection in Southeast Asia by enabling sustained military presence and joint exercises. The study finds that Indonesia tactically frames its defense ties to minimize geopolitical exposure and navigate external legal constraints. Comparative perspectives from India and Vietnam reinforce the findings, revealing regional convergence in legal structuring, diplomatic signaling, and risk-mitigation strategies. This paper contributes to scholarly discourse on middle power diplomacy, strategic hedging, and regional security by highlighting Indonesia’s nuanced approach to sustaining adaptive sovereignty within an increasingly polarized Indo-Pacific order.