Delineating treeline dynamics and its impact on carbon storage in Alpine region of Nepal

Alpine treeline dynamics significantly influence biodiversity and global carbon cycles, yet their responses to climate change and implications for carbon storage remain under studied in the Himalayas. This research work focuses on delineating the treeline elevation shifts (1993–2023) and their impact on above-ground carbon stocks in Rolwaling Valley, Nepal, using Local Indicator of Spatial Association (LISA) autocorrelation, and stratified random sampling across 100-m elevation strata. Results showed minimal upward treeline migration (4.56m over 30 years), with average elevation stabilizing at treeline3961.49 ± 18.30 by 2023. The slight upward trend in the NDVI (0.0011 units/year) indicates improved vegetation density over the 30 years in the study area. Above-ground carbon stocks declined significantly with elevation, ranging from 48.33 Mg/ha (3700-3800m) to 40.52 Mg/ha (3900-4000m), equivalent to a loss of 67.84 kg per meter gained. Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP) prioritization identified forest restoration and silviculture interventions as the most effective measures for enhancing carbon benefits. The study provides actionable insights for aligning ecosystem management in alpine areas with Sustainable Development Goal (SDG) -13 (Climate Action) and 15 (Life on Land), with a focus on adaptive strategies to enhance carbon sinks in alpine’s warming climate.