Unraveling the vulnerability of protected areas in Sumatra to oil palm expansion

Tesso Nilo National Park (TNNP), one of the last refugia of the Sumatran tiger ( Panthera tigris sumatrae ) which stands on the verge of extinction as threats increase from land-use changes resulting in massive forest fragmentation. This study examines landscape dynamics in TNNP between 2004 to 2024, using advanced geospatial tools, analyzing changes in land use land cover (LULC), and forest fragmentation patterns. Field data and interviews complement the spatial analysis. We found a dramatic decline in forest cover from 87.5% of the total area in 2004 to 32.84% in 2024, with a corresponding increase in agricultural land and bareland. Our results also showed a substantial increase in the number of forest patches and edges, indicating severe habitat disturbance and a reduction in the core area of the forest. The park's human footprint reached 99.39% modified land, critically threatening flagship species like Sumatran tigers and elephants that require extensive contiguous habitats. While Indonesia's palm oil moratorium has been in place since 2018, weak enforcement and local livelihood dependencies continue to exacerbate fragmentation. We propose three key solutions: (1) targeted restoration of priority connectivity corridors, (2) implementation of livelihood transition programs in buffer zones to provide economic alternatives, and (3) satellite-based monitoring systems for law enforcement. These findings underscore the urgent need for integrated landscape management that combines strict core area protection with sustainable livelihood approaches.